Go! Go! Mariners!

Three Seattle pitchers set for arbitration

Felix agrees to one-year, $3.8M deal

Bedard, Heilman follow the leader

Erik Bedard $7.75M

Felix Hernandez $3.8M

Aaron Heilman $1.625M

M’s Hire Tom Tango

Tom Tango 是何許人也？

Google一下就知道了，他是Leverage、Win Expectancy、Run Expectanc、FIP...等數據的發明者，USSM的作者Dave甚至尊他為現今棒球統計分析最強的人。

Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2009 by John Sickels

1) Carlos Triunfel, INF, Grade B+: He has flaws, but holding your own in the Cal League at age 18 is special. High risk, high reward.

2) Greg Halman, OF, Grade B: Another high risk/high reward guy, awesome power/speed potential but huge problems with breaking balls. Could be a B+ but high risk of failure and 2.5 years older than Triunfel.

3) Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Grade B: Impressive arm and good numbers in the Midwest League, but too raw to get a B+.

4) Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade B: Another live arm who did well at the lower levels but needs additional refinement.

5) Michael Pineda, RHP, Grade B: Doesn’t throw quite as hard as Aumont and Ramirez, but better command.

6) Michael Saunders, OF, Grade B-: Good tools, skills coming along, but high strikeout rate is concerning.

7) Adam Moore, C, Grade B-: Good pop, good arm, still polishing defense. Deserves more attention than he gets.

8) Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B, Grade B-: Another young high ceiling guy with strike zone problems.

9) Dennis Raben, OF, Grade B-: Love the power and patience, but other tools are mediocre, may strike out too much to hit for average.

10) Mario Martinez, 3B, Grade C+: Considering B- based on projection. Worried about low walk rate but very young.

11) Mike Carp, 1B, Grade C+: Power and patience, acquired from Mets, but track record is a bit erratic and scouts give mixed reports.

12) Mike Wilson, OF, Grade C+ Murders lefties, strong power, has some fielding ability too, strikes out a lot. Could be good platoon hitter.

13) Maikel Cleto, RHP, Grade C+: Power arm acquired from Mets. Great fastball, but rather raw.

14) Joshua Fields, RHP, Grade C+: I’m assuming he will sign. Stuff is here, but what about command?

15) Shawn Kelley, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect could help in bullpen sooner than expected.

16) Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B, Grade C: I think he can be a useful role player, but doubt he will hit enough to start.

17) Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Grade C: Speedy guy acquired from Mets, probably a bench asset eventually.

18) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C: Projectable arm from 2008 draft, somewhat raw for a college pitcher.

19) Justin Thomas, LHP, Grade C: Seems to take well to bullpen use, could be fine utility pitcher.

20) Steven Hensley, RHP, Grade C: Another interesting college pitcher from 2008 draft, I think he could surprise if command sharpens up a bit more.

寫這篇其實是要幫自己重新熟悉水手，畢竟因為準備考試，這個球季幾乎沒關心水手的動態，所以也趁這個機會惡補一下。主要以球季間的消息為主，有空就會寫一點，希望能在年底前完成。XD

四月

0405　Phillippe Aumont 小聯盟初登板，投了4局的無安打比賽。

0425　和城島簽下$24M/3yr的延長合約。

0429　Wladimir Balentien 在3A的比賽中單場三響，包括一支場內全壘打。

0430　水手把 Greg Norton 和 Brad Wilkerson 都砍了，Wladimir Balentien 和 Jeff Clement 從3A被叫上來。Wilkerson 原本是水手預計的先發RF。=_=

Mariners 2008 WAR - position players @USSM

圖片版 @USSM

表格版 @FanGraphs

WAR是評鑑球員價值的一種數據，參考項目包括打擊、守備、打席數、守位...等，最後算出球員為球隊多得了幾分，多贏了幾場勝利，並算出球員的價值。

2008年水手野手中，WAR最高的是 Adrian Beltre、Ichiro、Jose Lopez、Raul Ibanez 四人，他們共為水手多贏了11.8勝，最差的則是 Jose Vidro、Wladimir Balentien、Richie Sexson，他們讓水手少贏了3.3場。

2009 ZiPS Projections - Seattle Mariners (建議用IE開啟以免版面錯亂XD)

先看看Zips的一些簡介。

Zips是用電腦軟體跑出的預測，不過他們並不預測球員在大聯盟的時間，所以有些被預測的球員可能一整年都沒在大聯盟出賽，這時需要一些轉換，例如Zips預測的.240，換算成在3A的成績是.280，在2A則是.300。

因為這是在12月底前就做出的預測，所以很多FA都還沒塵埃落定，因此有些球員都是在前一年所待的球隊名單中。而Zips的預測並不包括球員的受傷機會。

Zips推測的根據是美聯的ERA是4.44，國聯是4.38。

野手的攻擊能力依據RC/27排序及分類，依據過去三年同位置的球員表現分成五級，「Excellent」是最好的，「Very Good」次之，其餘類推。

Rule 5 Draft Selections With Analysis by BA

第二輪選了二遊工具人，接著和皇家買來11輪選的左投。

Mariners deal Putz in blockbuster trade

*Minors